MLB: Five Predictions You Can Take to the Bank - Joe Chacon's Blog

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MLB: Five Predictions You Can Take to the Bank Stuck

Posted on July 24, 2012 at 03:18 PM.

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The Major League Baseball season is coming up on game 100 for many teams. In another month and a half we'll be talking about the postseason.

There have been plenty of great stories this year. From Mike Trout's stellar rookie campaign to the standing ovations Chipper Jones has received on his "hall of fame" tour, the 2012 season has been another good one.

As we hit the home stretch of the regular season, let's take a look at five predictions that will come true in 2012.

5. Los Angeles Angels will win the AL West.
Texas has been in first place since April 9 when they overtook the then 3-2 Seattle Mariners for the top spot.

Seattle faded into oblivion and Oakland has never really been in the hunt until their most recent surge. The biggest threat to the Rangers has been the Los Angeles Angels.

The Angels got off to a sluggish start offensively and now appear poised to make a run in the later part of the season. Albert Pujols, Mike Trout, and Mark Trumbo are all playing exceptionally well.

Home runs will be aplenty in Texas during the hot summer months, as they normally are, but the Angels have not played to their potential and I fully expect them to be on top of the division once the final game is played.

4. Atlanta Braves will win the NL East.
There are two major reasons why I believe the Atlanta Braves will win the East:

I don't believe Washington's arms will continue to bail out the offense during the last month of the season.
Chipper Jones deserves a fairy tale ending.

Wait, you're not sold on my reasoning? Well, although it would be great to see Jones go out with a playoff run, the fact is that the Braves have the experience to make things happen during the final few weeks of the season.

Statistically it doesn't make sense. Washington has the better pitching and hitting numbers, but there is something about Atlanta's lineup that shows flashes of brilliance every once in a while. When you have a lineup that consists of Bourn, Prado, Heyward, Jones, Freeman, McCann, Uggla, and Janish, you are looking at a team that is capable of rattling off a 10 game winning streak if they can all get timely hits on a more consistent basis.

Currently there are plenty of "power rankings" around the web that list Washington as the number two or three team in baseball with Atlanta hovering around number 10. As of this writing "Chop Chop" fans see their team trailing Washington by 4 1/2 games.

The two clubs face each other six more times during the regular season.

3. Mike Trout will win the AL Rookie of the Year Award.
I know, I really went out on a ledge here and you are most likely in a state of irate shock.

Mike Trout began the season as a distant thought from 19-year-old sensation Bryce Harper. Since the beginning of May, Trout has been one of the most consistent players in all of baseball.

The 20-year-old outfielder is currently batting .357 with 15 home runs and 31 stolen bases. Trout is also very strong on the defensive side of things and has only committed three errors the entire season.

Trout's toughest competition for ROY is Texas Rangers' pitcher Yu Darvish. Darvish is 11-6 with a 3.88 ERA and 132 strikeouts.

The only suspense will be if Trout wins the award unanimously or not.

2. R.A. Dickey will not win 20 games.
I've been enamored with R.A. Dickey's story as much as the next baseball fan, but one cannot ignore the fact that Dickey's career ERA is 4.13 and his previous season high for wins is 11 (2010).

While it may be reasonable to suggest Dickey has finally mastered his knuckleball to the point where he can put together a full season of success, it would be unreasonable to expect him to win 20 games.

No matter how good a knuckleball pitcher is, there are too many uncontrollable variables such as time of day and weather that affect the pitch. As the season progresses towards August and September, Dickey will begin to pitch in tougher conditions which will make it more difficult to maintain the success of his knuckler.

Dickey will most likely not implode, but expectations on how he finishes the season should be tempered a bit.

1. Stephen Strasburg will pitch the entire 2012 season.
If Stephen Strasburg has the ball taken from him before the end of the season he may ask for an immediate release from his contract.

Well, perhaps that is a bit extreme. Strasburg, however, is having a fantastic season (10-4, 2.85 ERA) and his team has found success. The Nats currently lead the NL East by 4 1/2 games.

Washington management can say all the right things about putting a limit on the star pitcher to preserve him for the future, but they are really in a no-win situation. Should they shut him down at 160 innings the fans in Washington will be upset, especially if the team fails to make the playoffs.

On the other hand, if Strasburg re-injures himself after the proposed inning cap then they will be held responsible for not taking better care of him.

Expect Strasburg to make his turn in the rotation throughout the regular season and/or playoffs.

I'd love to hear a couple of your predictions for the rest of the season. We'll come back to this after the dust settles and compare notes.

Joe Chacon is a Staff Writer for Operation Sports and a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JoeChacon.

Comments

# 1 fsufan4423 @ Jul 24

Hope you're right about the Braves. I would love to see Chipper and the braves win a playoff series or two.

# 2 MFarrer74 @ Jul 24

I'm sorry, but I think you're wrong on points 4,2,1. Strasburg WILL be shut down, the Nationals will win the NL East, and R.A. Dickey will be a 20 game winner.

# 3 Joe Chacon @ Jul 24

@MFarrer74 We'll see how it goes. I try not to pull too many far fetched predictions, but I do feel good about the ones I did post.

# 4 SDwinder @ Jul 24

Trout, if he keeps up this pace, not only ROY, but MVP as well!

# 5 baseballboss5 @ Jul 24

Strasburg wont be shut down if they make a playoff push but if i was the gm id make him have an extra day of rest between starts

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